Hoobuy Spreadsheet's Movement Longevity Prediction Model for Second-hand Watch Resale Risk Control
2025-07-17
Introduction
In the booming secondary market for luxury watches, movement durability has become a crucial factor affecting purchase decisions. Hoobuy's proprietary spreadsheet-based Movement Longevity Prediction Model (MLPM)
Core Algorithm Components
1. Brand/Model Coefficient Matrix
- Patek Philippe: 0.92 reliability index
- Rolex: 0.89 (baseline)
- ETA movements: 0.76-0.85 by generation
2. Service History Weighting
| Service Records | Longevity Bonus |
|---|---|
| Full documentation | +15% lifespan |
| Partial records | +3-7% |
| No papers | -20% penalty |
3. Usage Wear Analysis
The model incorporates oscillation amplitude deviation
Practical Application Case
Sample Output:
Current Condition Score: 84/100
Predicted Service Interval: 4.2 years vs baseline 7
Recommended Purchase Price: ≤$8,200 (83% MSRP)